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Sep 24, 2022Liked by Matt Welch

Where is the Moynihan/Fergie/Precious photo?? The people must know!

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Sep 24, 2022Liked by Matt Welch

I will not throat clear about Putin and Russia. I argue in good faith understanding the facts of wicked Russia.

Thank you Kmele for somewhat pushing back on the consensus of the unalloyed goodness of American involvement. And thank you Matt for acknowledging you could at least be partially mistaken. There are items of note that seem to be ignored. The US spent 5 Billion dollars to overthrow Viktor Yanukovych in 2014. The Donbass region overwhelmingly voted Yanukovych and the Ukrainian government has bombed the Donbass, part of it's sovereign territory mind you, for the past 7 years. I am not arguing that this war was caused by the US. But we can believe two things to be true. Namely Russia wrongly invaded a sovereign nation, and the US involvement with a Russian puppet nation escalated the chances of conflict.

I am not saying we should stop supporting Ukraine. As Eli Lake would say, foreign policy is usually a choice between bad and really bad. I am only saying, maybe we should be humble about which side our involvement falls on.

Matt also mentioned that the desire for war, much like pollution falls as material wealth grows. This is a version of the "Enlightenment Now" thesis. My concern is the Talebian response: stability might be an illusion. In 2010 we could ask, which country is more stable? Egypt or Italy? Italy had more than 30 governments since WWII. Egypt had the same President for 30 years. It is possible we are in a world with long periods of stability, punctuated by gruesome destruction. History does not have an end, and we should tread lightly.

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founding

Posting this with a little hesitation because US immigration law (the INA) is complex and often when those who hear about it but aren’t working in the arena don’t like what they hear and get mad at the messenger. Folks I’m just a random loser these days, so don’t get mad at the messenger.

The INA was written to prioritize family reunification. So from a bird’s eye-view: spouses bringing in their partners, parents their kids, kids their parents, brothers, sisters, aunts, uncles … and then each country has a quota so that one country can’t dominate by sheer numbers. Student and work visas (a few of which come with the ability to transmogrify into immigrant visas) come in the next tranche. There are factors that can prevent someone from exercising their legal standing to immigrate (criminal factors, previous visa misuse) so it’s not always a slam dunk process.

People who enter illegally via crossing the border or trying to use/misuse asylum do so because they don’t have standing to immigrate legally AND they aren’t eligible for a work or tourist visa either (they are too poor to prove that they won’t misuse the visa/don’t have skills for a work visa/don’t have the money or luck to know intermediaries that arrange migrant labor or other work visas). This is why illegal immigrants are overwhelmingly the unskilled poor with no family wealth or connections to draw on.

Also, once you have entered illegally, even if you do later find standing to immigrate legally, *if you leave the US* you’ll be penalized with a time punishment (e.g. 3 years, 10 years, 20 years) before you’ll be allowed to exercise that standing. There are other vagaries to the system that sometimes can benefit those who get in and stay in, but that’s the basic structure.

The idea that somehow reforming immigration law to prioritize/accommodate the poor and unskilled and that will resolve things is just not feasible. And no other nation on earth does it without some hierarchy of prioritization either because … it’s just not feasible. What are you going to do? Tell the kid, sorry, your parents have to stay in Nicaragua because there are 3 poor unskilled families who were arrested entering illegally in El Paso who took the available spaces? Oh your parents in Nicaragua are poor too? Well then no tourist visa for them to come visit you because poverty plus you living in the US implies they won’t go home. So now you - an American citizen - can only see your parents if you travel to them because US immigration law prioritizes giving the random poor citizenship? Can’t afford the travel because you’re poor too, never mind not having paid vacation time from your job available? So sorry! I guess you just aren’t poor enough. I hear that zoom calls are just like visiting IRL!

Also, it’s 9-11 border controls more than Clinton’s wall - controls that again all nations use to some extent - means that unskilled labor cannot ebb and flow through ports of entry and the border. Prior to 9-11, this is how entrants like this were handled, come in make money and go home, rinse, wash, repeat. Maybe the work wasn’t great, but the manner of tolerating the fact of illegal entrants actually was tolerated.

Lastly, the U.S. has a habit of solving its illegal entrant problem with amnesty programs (Reagan’s amnesty, INA reform, the Dreamers). Get in and stay long enough, and you can pretty much count on an executive order that will grant you citizenship or at least the chance at it. And then guess what each of those people do? Petition (understandably) for the rest of their family to come and we return to the second paragraph.

I spent years doing visa interviews, had a stint in the largest visa fraud office outside the US, spent several years living in Juarez and El Paso. If you write immigration rules based off of your heart, why have laws? Almost everyone you encounter will have a good reason for what they are doing. It was hard, depressing work. And sometimes it was happy joyful work too though. But when you see the balance of rewarding those immigrating with standing (family/work/schooling/asylum) versus those who don’t, it gets hard to accept the idea that those without standing or true asylum needs should come first and should bump everyone else down the line.

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I hate to "well actually," but I really think Moynihan needs to update his Nigerian model minority meme: It's true that Nigerians do better than unhyphenated Americans, but they're way down the list at 63rd for median income.

The top is usually juggled between Indian, Taiwanese and, funnily enough, Australian-Americans, who earn double the native average. (I guess the latter is what you get when you average Josh Szeps' and Rupert Murdoch's salaries, plus the guy Michael has to pay royalties to when he pulls out that Kiwi accent he calls Australian.)

Norwegians also beat out the Nigerians, and for some reason the Basque are doing really well: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ethnic_groups_in_the_United_States_by_household_income

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Wow, the comments are extra spicy this time! Has the Substack finally been infiltrated by Russian bots?

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You guys need to get a copy of Trump, the game. As I recall, it involved hiding asset cards in glossy coffin like devices and lying to other players. Should be played live on twitch with Ben Dreyfuss.

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The funny thing about Shaun King is that he could clear up the accusations that he's not really black a la Elizabeth Warren and her 23&Me results. As far as clearing up the multiple accusations of fraud, I don't know, maybe he could roofie the country's water supply and erase the past 5 years or so of internet. If ever there were a real life Sylvester McMonkey McBean (wow, maybe Dr Seuss really WAS a racist), it's the dude saying, "Help me lift our community out of poverty by buying these $160 hoodies.*"

*May more closely resemble sloppily stapled-together burlap sack, rather than image shown in ad. Refund requesters will be called white and blocked on social media.

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What's wrong with you lads? Not the smallest singlest weeist mention of inebriation? Finally walking the straight and narrow? Ah well.

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The question ahead of the next episode is, will anyone besides Kmele have seen the Woman King? Sounded pretty noncommittal if you ask me.

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About Trump and the sharia law thing, I remember a big thing was that he wanted Crooked Hillary (which is ableist against the scoliosis community) to say during the debate was "radical Islamic terrorism" following the Orlando gay club massacre and she wouldn't say it.

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The thing I *needed* going into the weekend

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founding

I thought Kmele's son was MOT?

This is going to be his first Rosh Hashanah. Depending on who produced The Woman King, taking the kid to that movie, might really confuse him. What happens if he gets the wrong idea about who really runs the world?

Next week the kid has to get his name inscribed into The Book of Life so the governing council knows whose name to put on the cheques.

After 2 years the Aunts are going to have lots to say. Tonight, they tell us who was naughty (got fat and poor) and who was nice ( got skinny, married & rich) over the last 2 years.

At Yom Kippur they tell us whose outfits at synagogue were in "bad taste" and who is sick with "c......" (never said the word outloud because they think the disease is contagious).

Kmele, being a MOT, requires a greater commitment than just appearing to be Kosher.

L'chiam to all (even the heathen goys) !!

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Sep 24, 2022·edited Sep 24, 2022

Whew. . .lotta disagreement on this one. Not going to bother with a bunch of rabbit punches, most of it boils down to perspective and values rather than anything demonstrable, but I would like to say one quick thing concerning the Ukraine and Russia. . .The reason why America talks loudly and carries a big dick internationally has everything to do with the fact that we haven't had a foreign power project power into our borders in any meaningful way in two hundred years. Sure, the Japanese and the Germans managed to both carry out some sabotage with remote operatives andfuck around on some of our islands for bit but even that was going on a century ago, the Chinese and Russians have carried out very effective and embarrassing espionage and taken turns fucking us where we live, but no border is impermeable and worse than these things would be the measures necessary in order to pursue the level of security necessary to prevent them. None of these presented existential threats to the polity though.

The bear will not be broken until it feels the effects of war within its own borders. Until the country itself has been touched and the citizenry left with the absolute knowledge they are not inviolate. This does not mean armies, it does even necessarily mean fatalities, but Ukraine has to show that Russia lies within its reach even if it does not lie within its grasp. If this does not happen then any peace will simply be little more than an armistice. Even if Ukraine is admitted into the EU and conventional invasion is taken of the table, like Latvia and Estonia it will earn a special place of sanctioned enmity. They will become the target of every soft power offensive that Russia can devise going forward and once those vulnerabilities are laid bare, Russia won't be the only nation to capitalize off the exploitation. Removing Putin will change none of these things if peace is bought without total capitulation.

With Japan our nuclear armaments were deployed as a demonstration. If they wished to fight to the last man, as they were boasting, that such a thing was possible. It wasn't the destructive capability of the bomb which was convincing, and remember it took three days for the grudging surrender to come after the atomic weapons were employed, it was sobering realization of vulnerability. There is no other way to humble a hostile culture whose identity is rooted in supremacy and imperialism. They must be utterly broken. . .And then built back up again by the hands which dispatched them. They need to be disabused of their confidence in both and shown another way to be.

Russia will require a far more gentle touch than the Japanese for they possess far less awareness, resolve, and cohesion. They only need to be brushed the knowledge that nothing can protect them except the restraint of their adversaries but until that understanding is driven home with absolute certainty all other measures will only prove temporary.

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I'm in Georgia, hanging out with Russian kids escaping mobilization. FSB is pronounced Fizzbee in Rooskie.

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I agree with Matt's views on what we should be doing about the Ukraine war, and I agree with all his specific critiques about past Russian wars/invasions etc.

I'm just a little hesitant about deciding that therefore Russia is an "evil country". I'm not sure I like the results if we decide that "countries that have done a lot of bad shit in the past are evil". Even if Russia has done _more_ than most countries (have no trouble believing this), I'm just not sure how you could call them evil and not other countries without an arbitrary line about "this much bad shit is evil, but this other slightly different amount of bad shit is just a lot of individual bad things".

Is Putin evil? Yeah I'd probably agree with that. Is the current Russian government evil? I probably won't push back to hard on that either, but to fundamentally call the Russian state evil, regardless of anything else? I'm much more hesitant about that.

And furthermore, I'm really not sure what the value is in such a designation. I don't know why we need to do anything other than "the current Russian invasion of Ukraine is abhorrent and unacceptable"

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Moynihan, any chance you could post a couple of your go-to sources for following Ukraine/Russia closely? I'm trying to keep abreast of the situation

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