We do it for you, people. We don’t necessarily want to, but we do. Because you need it. In times of national crisis, the Fifth will forgo all the fun stories so we can tackle the important, necessary stories. It’s time to take your medicine, citizens of Fifdom, and allow Allison Schrager, economist and
Matt & Michael!!!! I can’t believe you two had a lengthy discussion of gay rights and policies, yet never mentioned the first VP to support gay marriage, Dick Cheney! He did it in like 2002 - a decade before Biden. #facts
I still don't get the antipathy towards Rufo/DeSantis when it comes to dismantling DEI departments from public universities. Money should not be doled out from the public treasury for state-sponsored racism.
1:20: I'm really glad you mentioned this. I think the combined efforts of a lot of very intelligent people including you three, John Mcwhorter, Jess Singal, Bari, etc. etc. have created a really solid pendulum swing back toward sanity when it comes to Woke Politics and the excesses of the tenets of Woke ideology (Critical theory, etc.). However, there is one aspect that is really underappreciated. It is the long term affects of this theory in crucial levers of our political structure. In particular, law schools. Many people, myself included, were very pleased when the courts shot down Trumps absolutely ridiculous "Muslim Bans" almost immediately. Courts are a very useful balance against executive overreach. But, we always assume that the courts will retain their purpose which we often assume to be what dictates them currently. So, we might be confident that a teacher could sue their school after being fired for having a blue lives matter sign in their yard (Or Black Lives Matter, etc) and win because it is a violation of his right to free expression. But what happens if the majority of the top law schools are pumping out "Lawyers" that no longer believe in things like free speech? I still see a very scary possible future where less and less judges and lawyers believe in concepts like due process, free speech, etc.
If anyone’s interested, former Fifth guest Nadav Eyal is on the Financial Times’ podcast with Gideon Rachman this week talking about the potential looming constitutional crisis in Israel:
The proposed banking regulations, such as upping the FDIC insurance limit at $500k, remind me so much of the gun control debates that are had and the legislation that is passed in the wake of many of the mass shootings that we've seen in recent years, in that the measures discussed would do nothing to actually prevent the event in question from happening in the first place or again.
This is my favorite podcast, and I have listened to every episode for the last 2+ years. The financial discussion in this episode was very disappointing. Short sellers are some of the most intelligent people in finance, and the shorts on this bank had been relatively modest. It was not obvious SVB would fail. Second, a collapse of SVB and First Republic would be a disaster for the innovation economy and severely jeopardize the long-term economic health of the US. Disclosure: I am a VC in the biotech community and undoubtedly biased.
Here’s the latest of three Substack pieces David Lat wrote about the contretemps at Stanford, including audio of the event. (Warning: it gets screechy.)
Allison Schrager was great and I'm generally not a fan of economists (too much abstract theory for a group of experts who have never run a business or worked on a desk).
It is a group of economists who are tasked with running the yearly Dodd-Frank stress tests. In 2022 they failed to stress test the banks for a rapidly rising interest rate scenario (not without precedent see 1980 and S&L crisis). The "extreme adverse scenario" in the 2022 stress tests had the 10-Year at 0.9% for all of 2023. It was 4.01% when SIVB started unloading their portfolio of treasuries. Regulators are never held accountable. Tim Geithner was head of the FRBNY (regulator assigned to oversee banks) during the largest banking failure in US history. For his stellar performance he was promoted to Treasury Secretary.
Doing away with the FDIC per-depositor insurance limit or increasing it to $500k would take an act of Congress. While one is sure Biden will politicize this in the weeks to come, one has their doubts about Congress committing acts of legislating.
The counter-factual on SIBV isn't the uninsured depositors would have been wiped out. The recovery by uninsured depositors for some of the most recent bank failures was between 80-95%. Obviously payroll and Oprah's money were a factor in the bail-out. Whether a liquidity crisis has turned into a solvency crisis remains to be seen. As of Wednesday March 15, 2023, the Fed had $318B in loans outstanding to the financial system (for context that is 50% of what they had extended during GFC).
90 years ago (when Biden 1st approved of gay marriage) FDR stopped a bank run by shutting the banks for a week, and having a single "fireside chat" with the citizens of his country explaining the banking system. A couple of months later his administration created the FDIC.
One can hardly imagine living in a time when a leader's mere words were so trusted, they soothed ones anxiety in a crisis.
Matt and Michael going full white supremacy by showing up on time to work.
Matt & Michael!!!! I can’t believe you two had a lengthy discussion of gay rights and policies, yet never mentioned the first VP to support gay marriage, Dick Cheney! He did it in like 2002 - a decade before Biden. #facts
Who is this Kmele fella they keep mentioning? I've heard rumors of his existence, but he's seen less frequently than Sasquatch.
I still don't get the antipathy towards Rufo/DeSantis when it comes to dismantling DEI departments from public universities. Money should not be doled out from the public treasury for state-sponsored racism.
1:20: I'm really glad you mentioned this. I think the combined efforts of a lot of very intelligent people including you three, John Mcwhorter, Jess Singal, Bari, etc. etc. have created a really solid pendulum swing back toward sanity when it comes to Woke Politics and the excesses of the tenets of Woke ideology (Critical theory, etc.). However, there is one aspect that is really underappreciated. It is the long term affects of this theory in crucial levers of our political structure. In particular, law schools. Many people, myself included, were very pleased when the courts shot down Trumps absolutely ridiculous "Muslim Bans" almost immediately. Courts are a very useful balance against executive overreach. But, we always assume that the courts will retain their purpose which we often assume to be what dictates them currently. So, we might be confident that a teacher could sue their school after being fired for having a blue lives matter sign in their yard (Or Black Lives Matter, etc) and win because it is a violation of his right to free expression. But what happens if the majority of the top law schools are pumping out "Lawyers" that no longer believe in things like free speech? I still see a very scary possible future where less and less judges and lawyers believe in concepts like due process, free speech, etc.
"all the people you hate are, in fact, to blame."
Conveniently for me, this is always true.
I’m here to take me medicine. I prefer street drugs, but I’ll settle, this time.
If anyone’s interested, former Fifth guest Nadav Eyal is on the Financial Times’ podcast with Gideon Rachman this week talking about the potential looming constitutional crisis in Israel:
https://www.ft.com/content/aff143e2-f6b4-4f31-9e67-cc28abb1e813
The proposed banking regulations, such as upping the FDIC insurance limit at $500k, remind me so much of the gun control debates that are had and the legislation that is passed in the wake of many of the mass shootings that we've seen in recent years, in that the measures discussed would do nothing to actually prevent the event in question from happening in the first place or again.
You're doing god's work, brothers.
This is my favorite podcast, and I have listened to every episode for the last 2+ years. The financial discussion in this episode was very disappointing. Short sellers are some of the most intelligent people in finance, and the shorts on this bank had been relatively modest. It was not obvious SVB would fail. Second, a collapse of SVB and First Republic would be a disaster for the innovation economy and severely jeopardize the long-term economic health of the US. Disclosure: I am a VC in the biotech community and undoubtedly biased.
Here’s the latest of three Substack pieces David Lat wrote about the contretemps at Stanford, including audio of the event. (Warning: it gets screechy.)
https://open.substack.com/pub/davidlat/p/the-full-audio-recording-of-judge?r=7enhd&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post
Do you want to know how fucking shocked I was to learn that Barney Frank, of all people, was connected to a bank that needed a bailout?
Not fucking shocked at all.
Having said that, this interview is actually pretty entertaining and worth a read. Honestly, neither Frank or Chotiner cover themselves in glory.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/why-barney-frank-went-to-work-for-signature-bank
Should colleges have a Department of Scientology? If not, please explain how and why you are against freedom of speech and freedom of expression.
Allison Schrager was great and I'm generally not a fan of economists (too much abstract theory for a group of experts who have never run a business or worked on a desk).
It is a group of economists who are tasked with running the yearly Dodd-Frank stress tests. In 2022 they failed to stress test the banks for a rapidly rising interest rate scenario (not without precedent see 1980 and S&L crisis). The "extreme adverse scenario" in the 2022 stress tests had the 10-Year at 0.9% for all of 2023. It was 4.01% when SIVB started unloading their portfolio of treasuries. Regulators are never held accountable. Tim Geithner was head of the FRBNY (regulator assigned to oversee banks) during the largest banking failure in US history. For his stellar performance he was promoted to Treasury Secretary.
Doing away with the FDIC per-depositor insurance limit or increasing it to $500k would take an act of Congress. While one is sure Biden will politicize this in the weeks to come, one has their doubts about Congress committing acts of legislating.
The counter-factual on SIBV isn't the uninsured depositors would have been wiped out. The recovery by uninsured depositors for some of the most recent bank failures was between 80-95%. Obviously payroll and Oprah's money were a factor in the bail-out. Whether a liquidity crisis has turned into a solvency crisis remains to be seen. As of Wednesday March 15, 2023, the Fed had $318B in loans outstanding to the financial system (for context that is 50% of what they had extended during GFC).
90 years ago (when Biden 1st approved of gay marriage) FDR stopped a bank run by shutting the banks for a week, and having a single "fireside chat" with the citizens of his country explaining the banking system. A couple of months later his administration created the FDIC.
One can hardly imagine living in a time when a leader's mere words were so trusted, they soothed ones anxiety in a crisis.
The Stanford thing made me feel bad for FedSoc student members everywhere.